US tariffs: The potential fallout for smallholder farmers in South Africa
AGOA has for years provided local agricultural exporters — from citrus and avocados to wine and nuts — with duty-free access to the US market. However, the US’s latest blanket tariff of 10% on all imports, with the possibility of a further 30% hike, now threatens that advantage. While larger exporters dominate the headlines, the long-term fallout is likely to weigh heaviest on smallholder farmers and rural economies.
AGOA uncertainty threatens hard-won progress
Nkosinathi Mahlangu, Momentum’s youth employment portfolio head, is concerned about how the shifting trade landscape could unravel years of hard-won inclusion in the agricultural sector.
"The potential exclusion of South Africa removes the duty-free access that we enjoy when we export produce and products to the US. This is one of the many setbacks that we are likely to suffer," says Mahlangu.
"SA agriculture has been supplying products like citrus fruits, nuts and avocados to the US market easily through AGOA. The potential exclusion would mean farmers need to break into new markets and compete with already existing players in the space, which will affect pricing and shipping costs, and play catch-up with competitors. Potential job losses could be on the cards, as a result."
While AGOA uncertainty creates ripple effects for established exporters, the tremors are even more destabilising for farmers trying to break into commercial supply chains for the first time. Many of these producers are based in rural areas, often women-led, and are still building the infrastructure, networks and scale needed to succeed.
“Corporate South Africa can play a role by facilitating market access for smallholder farmers through procurement commitments such as sourcing a percentage of fresh produce from smallholder farmers, Mahlangu notes. “Capacity building interventions could help farmers with training and support needed when it comes to industry compliance, safety and quality required by local and global markets.”
Tariffs expose supply chain gaps
According to agricultural specialist and mentor Allen Mkondwa, trade shifts like these will inevitably affect logistics, cost structures and timelines, especially for emerging farmers. Some smallholder producers already find it difficult to secure sufficient volumes and navigate cold chain requirements. If the export equation becomes more complex or costly, they risk falling even further behind.
Mkondwa stresses that tariff changes don’t just impact revenue; they disrupt long-term planning, which is crucial for sustainable farming. Producers at this level are often operating season to season. Without predictable access to markets, years of capacity building can be undone.
He believes that targeted investment in infrastructure, particularly packhouses, cold rooms and transport networks, will be vital in helping small-scale farmers weather trade disruptions. These are the same bottlenecks that have limited rural farmers for decades. Without addressing them, inclusive growth remains out of reach.
This is where value chain control becomes critical, says Ma Joye, small-scale farmer and founder of Umgibe Farming Organics in KwaZulu-Natal. She advocates for smallholders to take greater ownership over the entire chain – from seed to shelf – through practices like seed banking, localised crop processing and sustainable production methods. This helps build self-reliance, improve profit margins and reduce exposure to global shocks.
Sustainable growth needs more than short-term support
Mahlangu agrees that long-term inclusion requires more than just short-term fixes. "Policy interventions should be intentional about rural development, economic inclusion and the elephant in the room that is access to land and land reform," he says.
“The country needs to accelerate land redistribution programmes to allow smallholder farmers to access land. Access to funding is another challenge faced by smallholder farmers, and this could be remedied through tailored grants and subsidies from the Department of Agriculture and the financial services sector."
Mkondwa echoes this sentiment, calling for greater alignment between public and private sector efforts. He believes scalable partnerships are needed to help farmers meet compliance, traceability and quality standards, whether for local supermarkets or export markets. Corporate players can also contribute through procurement commitments and mentorship. Sourcing even a portion of fresh produce from emerging suppliers helps shift the needle, and consistent support makes a lasting difference.
Women in farming shows what’s possible
Mahlangu points to Momentum’s Women in Farming initiative in KwaZulu-Natal as a working example. "Agriculture is one of the key entrepreneurship focus areas within the Momentum Group Foundation, as it not only influences food security but is also a key economic driver and a catalyst for young farmers, especially women," he says.
“It is considered a sunrise sector because it aligns with local developmental needs, and its rapid growth among young agripreneurs positions it as a key driver of future economic growth and job creation."
Joye believes initiatives like these are most effective when they foster broader entrepreneurial ecosystems, connecting farmers to local businesses, cooperatives and government support systems. Aggregation models, for instance, enable smallholders to negotiate better prices and terms through collective bargaining. “Together we are an ocean, individually we are mere raindrops,” she says, pointing to the power of collaboration in building resilience."
Mkondwa adds that initiatives like this show the difference targeted mentorship and technical support can make. With a combination of access, training and partnership, smallholder producers can thrive, even in a changing global landscape.
As the AGOA conversation continues, both Mahlangu and Mkondwa agree: protecting South Africa’s agri-sector isn’t just about trade negotiations. It’s about building a system that is resilient, inclusive and prepared for whatever comes next.