New research shows SMS is not long for this world
15 Oct 2024
The mobile messaging landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, with traditional SMS traffic set to decline starting in 2024. According to a new whitepaper from Juniper Research, SMS messaging is projected to see a downturn, with an expected five trillion messages sent – a major decrease from previous years. This decline is linked to rising SMS costs, increasing fraud, and the emergence of Rich Communication Services (RCS).
RCS, heralded as the next generation of SMS, promises a more interactive and feature-rich experience.
With Apple’s support for RCS in iOS 18, market adoption of is expected to surge, increasing by 282% between 2024 and 2025.
This shift presents new opportunities for marketers to engage with consumers through enhanced messaging capabilities.
Over-The-Top (OTT) messaging platforms like WhatsApp and social media messaging are also on the rise in text heavy markets like the US, offering cost-effective and conversational alternatives.
These platforms' growth necessitates marketers to adapt their strategies to leverage these emerging channels effectively.
To the research
Juniper Research forecasts a dramatic shift in SMS’s market share by value, predicting a reduction to 32% of global mobile messaging revenue by 2029, down from 45% in 2024.
This 13% drop comes at a time when the demand for mobile messaging traffic is increasing significantly, growing from 189 trillion messages sent in 2024 to 280 trillion in 2029.
The report suggests that fraudulent SMS activity, excessive pricing, and the availability of richer alternatives are driving the decline of SMS, prompting enterprises to seek alternative communication channels.
“RCS and OTT messaging capitalise on a growing demand for conversational messaging among users,” explains research author Georgia Allen.
“In response, operators must guarantee that the pricing of RCS is more competitive than that of SMS to avoid losing out to OTT messaging.”
International rates
The new report, Global Mobile Messaging Market 2024-2029, also highlights the importance of regulated international delivery rates to stabilise pricing and capitalise on the growing demand for messaging.
Mobile messaging vendors must proactively ensure fraud prevention through universal RCS standards and interoperable verification over OTT messaging channels. This will ensure that high-spending enterprises find appeal in these rich media channels.
While the era of traditional SMS may be waning, the future of mobile messaging is bright, with RCS and OTT platforms at the forefront, offering innovative and secure communication solutions for the modern digital age.
“OTT messaging co-existed with SMS, and we are anticipating a similar trend with RCS and OTT messaging,” says Allen.
