In March 2025, South Africa’s power system remained constrained, with the Energy Availability Factor (EAF) largely unchanged at 57.5%1, compared to 57.4% in February.
Source: © Mining Review Africa
Mining Review Africa Eskom announced on 23 March 2025 that the final 800 MW unit at its Kusile coalfired power station had achieved first synchronisation with the national grid
The narrow margin between dispatchable generation and electricity demand underscored these challenges.
This is according to a report by the Minerals Council South Africa.
Average demand for the month stood at 22,509 MW, while dispatchable generation averaged 22,357 MW, necessitating a total of 55 hours of loadshedding during March.
From 7–10 March, a sudden loss of 2,700 MW in generation capacity - including Koeberg Unit 2 (930 MW) and two Kusile units - led to increased reliance on Open Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs) to meet demand.
As these reserves were depleted, loadshedding became necessary to restore emergency reserves.
Later, on 19 March, additional loadshedding was implemented following the failure of five generating units, two of which were from the Cahora Bassa hydroelectric system in Mozambique.
Breakdowns were frequent and without warning in March.
Eskom acknowledges that unexpected generation unit losses are disruptive.
However, the Summer Outlook published in August 2024 remains unchanged, with a continued focus on the Generation Recovery Plan.
The strain in terms of breakdowns that necessitated loadshedding to replenish emergency energy reserves is also reflected in the usage of the Open Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs).
March saw the highest average utilisation of the OCGTs since the worst of loadshedding in 2023.
2025 is trending downward
Disappointingly, when tracking the historical EAF over recent years, 2025 is trending downward after a promising start to the year.
In 2025, the EAF appears to be aligning with the lower levels seen in the first few months of 2024 and remains well below the pre-Covid highs of 2019.
Data released by Stats SA (3 April) indicated that seasonally adjusted real electricity generation fell by 2.5% year-on-year in February 2025.
However, on a month-to-month basis, production edged up by 0.5% compared to January 2024.
The Stats SA data aligns with data from Eskom, showing that February was a particularly challenging month for Eskom, as it recorded the largest gap between minimum and maximum EAF levels since 2022 - highlighting the system’s fragility.
Loadshedding in March was partially caused by failing generating units in Mozambique.
Mark Allewell 25 Mar 2025
Net exports dominating again
In 2024, exports were severely constrained, and imports played a critical role in balancing demand.
However, this trend has since reversed, with net exports once again dominating.
This shift reflects improved electricity availability, particularly from Eskom, enabling increased exports to other neighbouring countries - an encouraging sign for both regional supply stability and Eskom’s financial position.
Renewable energy projects
While South Africa’s electricity system remains under severe strain - evident in indicators such as the idle Energy Availability Factor - Eskom has reaffirmed its commitment to maintenance and improving the reliability of repairs.
March saw several notable developments in the electricity sector.
The Minister of Electricity & Energy issued a Section 34 determination to procure 1,164 km of 400 kV transmission lines and associated infrastructure across the Northern Cape, North West, and Gauteng provinces.
This initiative aims to ease transmission constraints, enabling more renewable energy projects to connect to the grid, particularly in the Cape provinces, which are most suited to renewable energy projects.
This aligns with the recent cabinet approval of the South African Renewable Energy Masterplan (SAREM), which focuses on leveraging the growing demand for renewable energy and storage technologies.
Wendell Roelf 24 Feb 2025
Kusile coalfired power station
Additionally, after 17 years of delays, corruption allegations, plant failures, and significant cost overruns, Eskom announced on 23 March 2025 that the final 800 MW unit at its Kusile coal-fired power station had achieved first synchronisation with the national grid.
With six units and a total capacity of 4,800 MW, Kusile is now the fourth-largest coal-fired power station in the world.
Winter is coming
While there is notable progress in electricity generation, transmission, and distribution reforms, Eskom remains under pressure to stabilise its existing generation capacity and improve the reliability of its coal-fired fleet.
However, as the country approaches the winter months, Eskom has not flagged any immediate concerns regarding its ability to meet the seasonal increase in electricity demand.
