The average take-home pay reaches highest level yet in September

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Recent developments in the economy have given a boost to salary earners and could potentially spill over into the upcoming busy shopping period.

“The average nominal take-home pay reached R17,171 while in real terms, salaries adjusted for inflation tracked higher at R14,969, improving by 5.6% year-on-year,” says Shergeran Naidoo, BankservAfrica’s head of stakeholder engagements.

The moderating consumer inflation will likely benefit salary earners and boost their purchasing power. Real take-home pay has risen by 2.2% in the first nine months of 2024 compared to the full-year average in 2023. In nominal terms, this has climbed by 6.3%.

“The suspension of load shedding for almost seven months, significant easing of inflation, new political landscape, and the first interest-rate cuts since March 2020, have provided a much-needed boost to confidence,” says Elize Kruger, independent economist.

"Firm indications that the Government of National Unity will focus on accelerating structural reforms to overcome growth and job-creation obstacles are also welcomed.

Long-term wage agreements

A trend that has been developing in the recent period, especially in unionised industries, is for companies to enter into longer-term wage agreements for up to five years. Often, these result in above-inflation outcomes for salary earners and have the added benefit of labour stability and cost certainty for companies.

With the average headline CPI forecast to average at 4.5% in 2024 and 2025 (vs 6.0% in 2023), workers locked into these agreements are expected to receive handsome real increases as the lower inflation outcomes are realised, according to Kruger.

While estimates point to an average salary increase of around 6% in 2024, the latest data in StatsSA’s Quarterly Employment Statistics suggest a somewhat lower average increase for the first six months of the year.

The nominal increase in average monthly earnings in the formal non-agricultural sector, including overtime and bonuses, was 4.7% in H1 2024. However, notable differences are evident. The transport (7.0%) and finance (6.6%) sectors recorded the highest increases in the first six months of 2024, unlike community and social services (2.3%) and manufacturing (3.0%).

“Overall, with 2024 being a year of two distinct halves, the higher levels of economic growth forecasts for the second half of the year could trigger a further uptick in salaries in more sectors towards year-end,” says Kruger.

Improved purchasing power

Still, the BTPI and industry indications suggest that 2024 could be the best year for salaries since 2020 when the average nominal take-home pay beats inflation.

“This improvement in purchasing power will provide much-needed relief to cash-strapped households and could, in combination with fuel-price relief and lower interest rates, support consumer spending in the latter part of the year. Black Friday sales are also likely to benefit from the anticipated improvement in household finances,” says Kruger.

The BankservAfrica Private Pensions Index (BPPI), tracking the pension payments to about 700 000 pensioners, increased in nominal and real terms in September 2024.

“The average nominal private pension rose to R11,410 in September 2024, up from August’s R11,161 and 6.2% higher than a year earlier,” says Naidoo. In real terms, the average private pension performed better on a monthly basis and remains 2.3% above a year earlier.

When comparing the average nominal BPPI for the first nine months of 2024 to the corresponding period one year earlier, a 5.1% increase is shown. The real BPPI is just marginally above the same period in 2023.

The introduction of the Two-Pot Retirement System on 1 September 2024 has generated awareness among members about their retirement savings.

Given that the new system has only recently been active – and with payments lagging – it is still early days for empirical insights to roll out from the BankservAfrica pension payments data.